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Choc oil prices: Confindustria and alarm ECB

 In Italia ''si osservano segnali piu' decisi di accelerazione'' della ripresa economica, ''anche se rimane ampio il divario growth with other nations.'' But, indicates Confindustria, in this scenario have included new''risk factors''. As''the shock represented by higher commodity prices, particularly oil''that''is likely to slow significantly the recovery in developed countries.''
A price to $ 115 a barrel''may 'result in a lower level of the Italian GDP of about 0.7% in two years to equal' to other conditions.'' He explained the general manager of Avenue of Astronomy, Giampaolo Galli, in a hearing in the House.
The rise in commodity prices may have recessionary effects, Confindustria warns, "may be exacerbated by increases in interest rates announced by the monetary authorities and the consequent exchange rate appreciation of the euro. "While the plan submitted by the Government to Europe, in the context of the objectives of the course of 2020 and out of the crisis," in its provisional version "is" neither ambitious, particularly in the light of the delay experienced by Italy in the last decade. "serving in Italy in a European context," a serious and shared reflection on the bottlenecks that hinder the growth of our country and the policies that can and should be put in place to return to be competitive in Europe and worldwide, "said the director general of Confindustria, in a hearing of the House Budget Committee on the National Reform Plan, announced last November by the Government to the European Union, will be presented in April with the final text. The scenario described in the parliamentary crisis by Giampaolo Galli indicates that a global recovery in early 2011 "has given new and more convincing signs of strengthening and spreading, with the involvement of major advanced economies, starting with the United States and Germany." In this context "in Italy are seen more pronounced acceleration signals, especially the manufacturing industry, with a significant reduction of redundancy, even if growth remains a wide gap with other nations, the gap before the crisis and that is confirmed since mid-2009 the global recovery has begun. " E' uno scenario oggi "favorevole" nel quale "si sono inseriti nuovi fattori di rischio che si sono aggiunti a quelli più volte indicati" da Confindustria: tra i quali, ricorda Galli, l'alta disoccupazione soprattutto giovanile, le difficoltà di accesso al credito, la crisi dei debiti sovrani e l'aumento dei debiti pubblici, difficoltà nel settore immobiliare, gli squilibri commerciali a livello globale. Oggi si aggiunge "lo shock" dell'aumento delle materie prime. Ed in particolare del petrolio che, "dovuto in parte a ragioni geopolitiche", rischia di frenare la ripresa.

BCE: ALLARME GREGGIO, RISCHI RIALZO INFLAZIONE - I rischi per l'inflazione nell'area euro sono ''al rialzo'' and oil prices are seen over $ 100. We read in the monthly bulletin of the European Central Bank.

The new estimates made by economic experts from the ECB suggest an average oil price of quality 'Brent' of $ 101.3 per barrel in 2011 and $ 102.4 in 2012.
ECB: NEW ESTIMATES EU-17, 2011 GDP +1.7%, +2.3% PRICES - The European Central Bank economists to revise upwards its estimates of inflation in the euro area. This is confirmed by the monthly bulletin Eurotower. The new 'staff projections' show an average inflation rate of 2.3% for 2011 (decided upward from 1, 8% of projections in December) and 1, 7% for 2012. The new estimates also indicate an average growth in the euro area 1, 7% this year (from 1.4% in December) and 1, 8% in the next.
ECB: Rate is very accommodating, "strong vigilance - The European Central Bank's monetary policy is" very accommodating "and be" strong vigilance ". This was written by the ECB in its monthly bulletin, in which for the first time in years the rates are no longer defined as "adequate."
ECB: ITALY, deficit / GDP AT 4.6% IN 2010 - The deficit-GDP ratio recorded by Italy for 2010 is below the targets set, with a ratio of deficit to GDP in 2010 to 4.6%, lower and better then the 5% ceiling set by the government. The notes la Banca centrale europea nel bollettino mensile, dove si citano le stime dell'Istat. La Bce, nel documento, rileva che "a un anno dall'inizio della crisi del debito sovrano in Grecia che si è diffusa verso un certo numero di Paesi, la situazione delle finanze pubbliche nell'area euro si è generalmente stabilizzata", anche se "resta precaria". Di fronte alle "tensioni sui mercati dei bond governativi sempre presenti", è "essenziale" che tutti i Paesi dell'euro realizzino integralmente i piani di consolidamento fiscali per il 2011.
BCE: NON DA ESCLUDERE FUTURA CRISI DEBITO SOVRANO - Le riforme della governance economica europea possono fare molto per minimizzare i rischi di una nuova crisi fiscale nell'area €, but "the possibility of a future sovereign debt crisis can not be excluded completely." This was written by the European Central Bank in its monthly bulletin, which contains a long article on the reforms that the European Council will be discussing. In the article, the ECB concludes that "need a permanent mechanism for crisis management, to address a liquidity crisis or insolvency at the sovereign."



Source: ansa.it